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United Tractors (UNTR) – In Line FY11 Operation Production

31 January 2012 By Joseph Pangaribuan

United Tractors (UNTR) – HOLD (Maintain)

Price: Rp27,850 – Target Price: Rp25,000

In Line FY11 Operation Production

  • December’11 production was below November’11 production, but overall FY11 Operation Production was in line with ourestimate.
  • Management remain optimistic in 2012 with 22% higher capex from last year to US$550 Mn.
  • Coal price still give mining producers the opportunity to expand in this year. [Read more...]
Filed Under: Research, Trade and Services

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) – Margin Pressure

25 January 2012 By Joseph Pangaribuan

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) – HOLD (Maintain)

Price: Rp21,750 – Target Price: Rp24,000

Margin Pressure

  • Higher third party purchasing erodes Margin. At FY07 gross margin 53.5% decline gradually to be 38% at 9M11.
  • Low FFB yield as many plants enter old age. Majority of Palm is higher than 15 years.
  • Based on consensus, CPO price will flat in 2012.
  • The strong catalyst is AALI’s maintain healthy balance sheet with net cash position.
  • Fully valued, maintain HOLD TP of Rp24,000, reflecting 14.4x PE’12F. Maintain HOLD
Filed Under: Agriculture, Research Tagged With:

AKR Corporindo (AKRA) – Keep improving its infrastructure

5 January 2012 By Yualdo Yudoprawiro

AKR Corporindo (AKRA) – BUY (Maintain)
Price: Rp3,175 – Target Price: Rp3,600

Keep improving its infrastructure

  • FY11 indication.
  • Additional Tanks will be operational by mid-year 2012.
  • Budgeted FY12 capex of Rp1.2 trillion. [Read more...]
Filed Under: Basic Industry and Chemicals, Research

Banking Sector – Margin pressure from Bank Indonesia

23 November 2011 By Joseph Pangaribuan

Banking Sector – Neutral

Margin pressure from Bank Indonesia

  • Bank Indonesia pushes banks to lower margin, particularly at overhead cost level.
  • If the decline of NIM does not boost third party funds, loan growth will still be moderate due to tight liquidity.
  • Banks will be increasing capital as loan expand. There will be more right issues and lower payout ratio in the future.
  • We like BBNI and BMRI, because of their low NIM and strong CAR. BBRI will be at a disadvantage because of low CAR and high NIM.
Filed Under: Finance, Research

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)- 9M11 Results – Beat Estimates

23 November 2011 By Joseph Pangaribuan

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) – Maintain Buy
Price: Rp6,800 – Target Price: Rp8,100

9M11 Results – Beat Estimates

  • BBRI posted net profit of Rp3.6 trillion at 3Q11, up 3.4% QoQ and brought 9M11 net profit Rp10.4 trillion, up 57%, above our estimate and the market.
  • We downgrade our assumption for loan growth and dividend payout as CAR slightly above BI standart.
  • NPL was booked 3.3% with Rp977 Bn write off in 3Q11 and recovery rate 59.6%.
  • Maintain Buy recommendation and upgrade target price with new Target Price of Rp8,100.
Filed Under: Finance, Research