Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

13 September 2023

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Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report

Kami melihat pasar bergerak lebih tenang kemarin dalam menyikapi pernyataan Gubernur Bank Sentral Jepang (BOJ) Kazuo Ueda mengenai rencana mengakhiri kebijakan suku bunga negatif lebih awal. Sejumlah analis dan investor berspekulasi BOJ akan mengakhiri kebijakan tersebut di awal tahun depan, tepatnya sebelum The Fed mulai memangkas suku bunga di 2Q24. Akan tetapi, sebagian besar analis masih meragukan hal ini dan memilih untuk mempertahankan proyeksi perubahan kebijakan BOJ mulai 2025 atau setelahnya. Di tengah perdebatan ini, pasar obligasi domestik dikejutkan oleh penerbitan suplai SBSN baru yang lebih tinggi dari target indikatif, yaitu menjadi IDR 9tn (Lihat fixed income news). Hal ini memicu aksi jual pada tenor panjang, yang tercermin dari kenaikan imbal hasil (yield) 10Y INDOGB sebesar 4 bps menjadi 6.65%. Sementara itu, Indeks ICBI turun -0.2%. Sedangkan, yield 2Y INDOGB turun -2 bps menjadi 6.3%. Kami melihat kejutan ini mendorong investor berpindah dari tenor panjang ke pendek. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB masih akan tertekan menuju rentang 6.65-6.75%. Sementara itu, Rupiah kemungkinan bergerak flat di rentang IDR 15,300-15,400 per USD.   

Fixed Income News: Jumlah penawaran masuk lelang obligasi SBSN naik tajam menjadi IDR 31.3tn (29/8: IDR 21.3tn). Tingkat permintaan terhadap obligasi di lelang SBSN naik diluar dugaan kami (SSI: IDR 16-21tn). Selain itu, Kementerian Keuangan juga menambah jumlah penerbitan SBSN baru sebesar 50% menjadi IDR 9tn (Target: IDR 6tn). Penerbitan terbesar dialokasikan untuk PBS033 (25 tahun) sebesar IDR 4.2tn, yang diikuti oleh PBS037 (13 tahun) sebesar IDR 2.6tn dan PBS034 (18 tahun) sebesar IDR 2tn. Berdasarkan alokasi penerbitan baru lelang kemarin, kami menduga pemerintah mencoba untuk meningkatkan durasi portofolio utang menjadi lebih panjang. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Harga minyak global naik menjadi USD 92.1 (Brent) dan  88.8 per bbl (WTI) setelah OPEC merilis laporan bulanan. Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh upaya Arab Saudi untuk mengurangi produksi minyak sebesar 1mn bpd. Berdasarkan statistik terbaru OPEC, produksi minyak Arab Saudi kembali turun menjadi 8.97mn bpd pada bulan Agustus (Jun: 9.99mn bpd; Jul: 9.05mn bpd). Menurut kami, pengurangan produksi Arab Saudi yang rencananya akan dipertahankan hingga akhir tahun ini bisa menaikkan harga minyak Brent dan WTI menjadi masing-masing USD 97.5 dan 94.1 per bbl di akhir tahun. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Penjualan motor domestik melambat menjadi 1.8% yoy pada bulan Agustus (Jul: 45.6% yoy) menjadi 534,379 unit (Jul: 475,428; Aug 22: 524,821). Kami memperkirakan penjualan motor domestik akan berada di tingkat pertumbuhan satu digit hingga akhir tahun ini karena efek ‘high base’. (AISI)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 September 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 September 2023 (Ind)

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